Recommended Capital Asset Project Escalation Rates
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Project Management (PM) worked with subject matter experts to develop a model to determine realistic escalation rates for capital asset projects at specific locations across the DOE complex. Various reviews, such as independent cost estimates and external independent reviews, employ this model in assessing project costs. This dynamic model is being refined and updated annually.
Below, you will find a summary of escalation rates for the past several years. These annual compound growth rates may be applied to total project cost estimates at DOE and NNSA sites and used in independent cost estimates and project reviews at critical decision milestones.
For a more detailed PDF report, please see the Project Management Library on connect.gov here (Must have access to connect.gov, contact PMWebmaster@hq.doe.gov for more details).
| 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site | Long-Term | Short-Term | Long-Term | Short-Term | Long-Term | Short-Term | Long-Term | Short-Term |
| BNL * | 4.46% | 4.51% | 5.45% | 4.47% | 6.17% | 4.32% | 8.40% | 4.48% |
| Carlsbad | 3.95% | 3.71% | 4.73% | 3.98% | 5.64% | 3.81% | 8.91% | 4.03% |
| Chicago | 4.46% | 4.51% | 5.46% | 4.47% | 6.17% | 4.32% | 8.40% | 4.48% |
| Hanford | 3.84% | 4.16% | 5.13% | 3.84% | 5.25% | 3.55% | 7.51% | 3.84% |
| INL * | 4.47% | 4.53% | 5.46% | 4.47% | 6.19% | 4.33% | 8.43% | 4.49% |
| LANL * | 4.47% | 4.52% | 5.45% | 4.47% | 6.19% | 4.32% | 8.42% | 4.49% |
| LLNL * | 4.47% | 4.51% | 5.44% | 4.47% | 6.16% | 4.33% | 8.40% | 4.49% |
| Louisiana SPR | 3.87% | 4.28% | 5.39% | 3.89% | 5.56% | 3.67% | 7.51% | 3.85% |
| Nevada | 3.89% | 4.11% | 5.05% | 3.90% | 5.53% | 3.70% | 7.71% | 3.88% |
| ORNL * | 4.48% | 4.54% | 5.44% | 4.48% | 6.20% | 4.34% | 8.43% | 4.50% |
| Pantex | 3.93% | 3.80% | 4.74% | 3.95% | 5.58% | 3.79% | 8.86% | 4.00% |
| SNL * | 4.48% | 4.53% | 5.50% | 4.48% | 6.22% | 4.33% | 8.44% | 4.49% |
| SRS | 3.88% | 4.19% | 5.04% | 3.88% | 5.47% | 3.69% | 7.76% | 3.88% |
| Texas SPR | 3.90% | 4.17% | 5.09% | 3.91% | 5.51% | 3.71% | 7.74% | 3.90% |
| Washington DC | 3.88% | 4.15% | 5.08% | 3.88% | 5.43% | 3.69% | 7.73% | 3.88% |
| Y-12 | 4.07% | 4.17% | 5.02% | 3.75% | 5.66% | 3.85% | 7.81% | 3.99% |
| Paducah | 3.89% | 4.02% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Portsmouth | 3.92% | 4.24% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Overall Average | 4.15% | 4.25% | 5.22% | 4.14% | 5.81% | 3.99% | 8.16% | 4.17% |
| Labs Average * | 4.47% | 4.51% | 5.46% | 4.47% | 6.19% | 4.33% | 8.42% | 4.49% |
| Sites Average | 3.96% | 4.09% | 5.07% | 3.94% | 5.58% | 3.78% | 8.00% | 3.97% |
* Denotes National Laboratory Site
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), Office of Project Management (PM-30). Rates are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) applied to total project costs for capital asset projects. Long-Term rates reflect 30-year historical CAGR; Short-Term rates reflect 2-year CAGR. Model updated annually.
Last updated: June 1, 2026 for FY2026