Challenge
Water availability is essential for expanding production and utilization of energy, as well as the nation’s health and security. However, there are fundamental scientific gaps in our understanding of terrestrial and atmospheric systems that limit our ability to predict water resources, especially on the time scale of weeks to years.
AI Solution
AI capable of multi-scale temporal reasoning could tackle three interrelated grand challenges: cloud physics, surface and subsurface water flows, and the broader hydrologic cycle. AI could improve, accelerate, and couple exascale-class modeling systems through advances in model initialization, and develop surrogates trained on DOE’s atmospheric and terrestrial observations and laboratory data, at a fraction of the computational cost of existing models. AI-based model diagnostics for enhanced analysis could refine a model-observational system aligned with decision-making needs.
Justification
DOE is the only agency with AI expertise, advanced computing, and integrated modeling capabilities (e.g., the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and infrastructure for field research necessary to meet the challenge of providing accurate information on surface and ground-water availability on the time scales of weeks to years.
National Impact
Solutions to these long-standing science challenges will radically improve America’s ability to anticipate water supply in the context of changing water availability, demands, energy technologies, and ambitions for energy expansion.