Project Name: Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN)
Funding Opportunity: Solar Forecasting 2
SETO Subprogram: Systems Integration
Location: Knoxville, TN and Palo Alto, CA
SETO Award Amount: $1,799,826
Awardee Cost Share:  $750,679
Principal Investigator: Aidan Tuohy

This project is developing and demonstrating new methods to operate power systems with high penetrations of solar power. These methods will use probabilistic solar power forecasts, which capture the uncertainty inherent in solar power output. Using actual data from three utility regions—Duke Energy, Southern Company, and Hawaiian Electric—the outcome will be a scheduling management platform (SMP) that enables new strategies for power system operations.

APPROACH

Probabilistic solar power forecasts will be developed for varying time scales from hours to days ahead for distributed and utility-scale solar photovoltaics. Improvements will focus on better capturing the uncertainty for specific weather conditions. Grid operation simulation tools that are tailored specifically to each utility’s operations will validate the improved forecasts and to determine the economic and reliability benefits of different uses of the data. Based on these simulation results, a SMP will be implemented in each of the three utilities to show how the proposed methods perform in real-world operations. This integrated approach, tested across multiple real-world systems with varying degrees of solar penetration and different existing operational practices, will demonstrate the full value of using new operational methods based on probabilistic forecasts.

INNOVATIONS

Advanced simulation tools that replicate and detail system operations previous research couldn’t capture will enable a more accurate and realistic understanding of both the use and value of probabilistic forecasts. The SMP will allow for real-world use of this data, which until now, has mainly focused on academic studies. By testing and demonstrating a range of potential use cases, it can identify beneficial methods, as well as balance the economic efficiency, reliability, and ease-of-use for each system. Performing these studies across multiple systems will show a range of benefits and will increase the likelihood of adoption beyond the utilities studied in the project.

EPRI Scheduling Management Platform
The scheduling management platform (SMP) will be used to assess forecasts, demonstrate the methods developed, and analyze the economic and reliability benefits of the proposed methods. Graphic courtesy of EPRI.