Quarterly Solar Industry Update

The Quarterly Solar Industry Update is conducted by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (formerly the National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Each update focuses on supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends, business models, and U.S. government programs relevant to the solar industry.

The Fall 2025 Solar Industry Update was published on November 19, 2025. Key findings from this report are listed below.

Global Solar Deployment

  • After significant growth in the first half of the year (H1 2025), China installed 28 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of photovoltaics (PV) in the third quarter (Q3 2025), down 52% year-over-year (y/y) after the introduction of market-based pricing reforms.
  • India installed a record 29.5 GWdc of solar energy in the first nine months of 2025, challenging the United States for the second largest market in 2025.
  • In 2024, 17 countries proposed solutions to mitigate issues related to high curtailment, negative pricing, unprofitability, grid instability, interconnection delays, seasonal generation variability, and other challenges.

U.S. PV Deployment

  • The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the United States installed 22.4 gigawatts alternating current (GWac) of PV in the first nine months of 2025, up 3%, y/y (the Solar Energy Industries Association reported 30.2 GWdc).
  • The United States installed approximately 21.7 GWh (7.7 GWac) of energy storage onto the electric grid in H1 2025.
  • EIA projects that U.S. PV’s annual growth in 2025 will fall 13%, y/y, to 32 GWac before rising above previous levels in 2026 to 39 GWac.
  • From September 2024 through August 2025, 28 states and territories generated more than 5% of their electricity from solar energy (23 generating more than 7%), with California having the highest at 36.3%.
  • Nationally, 8.2% of electricity was generated from solar energy systems in the trailing 12 months through August 2025—up from 6.9% in 2024.

PV System and Component Pricing

  • In H1 2025, the ranges in average U.S. PV system pricing across modeled and reported methods were:
    • $3.2/Wdc–$4.2/Wdc for residential solar
    • $2.0/Wdc–$3.6/Wdc for nonresidential solar
    • $1.1/Wdc for utility-scale solar
  • Global polysilicon, wafer, and cell pricing increased 30%–45% between June and September 2025, attributed to Chinese government intervention—global module prices were relatively stable at 0.09/Wdc.

The U.S. solar supply chain, however, is only indirectly impacted by Chinese market conditions, due to tariffs and other trade restrictions; module prices in the United States remained around $0.27/Wdc in Q3 2025.

Global Manufacturing

  • The United States manufactured approximately 15.7 GWdc of PV panels in H1 2025, up 126%, y/y, and 440% over the past two years.
  • In Q3 and early Q4 2025, domestic manufacturing capacity grew most notably in the module and wafer segments, with >1 GW of silicon wafer capacity coming online for the first time.

Market and Policy

  • Regulators in Nevada, Virginia, and West Virginia reached decisions on net metering successor tariff proposals.
  • As of October 2025, at least 10 states have implemented policies in direct response to declining federal support.
  • At the end of 2024, more than 280,000 U.S. employees spent most of their time on solar project- or manufacturing-related work. An additional 90,000 workers spent less than half their time on solar-related work. Another 79,000 jobs were in Battery Energy Storage Systems in 2024, a growth of 4%, y/y.

U.S. PV Imports

  • According to U.S. Census data, Q3 2025 module imports fell 38% quarter-over-quarter (q/q), returning to the range of the prior two quarters at 6.8 GWdc, with a total of 24.4 GWdc in Q1-Q3 2025.
  • The United States also imported 3.5 GWdc of PV cells in Q3 2025, for a total of 16.9 GWdc in Q1-Q3 2025, a sharp drop from the 8.9 GWdc seen in Q2.

Past Solar Industry Updates

2025

2024

2023

 

2022 

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016