2024 Solar Forecasting Workshop

On July 9-10, 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) hosted a workshop about solar forecasting to share and discuss the latest solar forecasting technologies, modeling, and resources that help utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants.

The workshop featured presentations, panels, and discussions. Presentation slides and the workshop agenda are all included below.

Presentation Slides

Agenda

July 10, 2024 | See Day 1 Presentation Slides

Time [ET]

Session

10-10:10 a.m.

Opening Remarks

Garrett Nilsen, Deputy Director, SETO

10:20-10:50 a.m.

Keynote

Gary Geernaert, Director, Office of Biological and Environmental Research / 
Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science

10:50-11:20 a.m.

Climate Modeling and grid planning

Moderated by Yi Yang, Technology Manager, SETO

‘Observation-Constrained GEOS Products from NASA’s Global Modeling and  Assimilation Office’
Steven Pawson, Chief, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

‘Creating High-Resolution Climate Data for Solar Energy Applications’
Jaemo Yang, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

11:20 a.m.-12:05 p.m.Group Discussion
12:05-1:05 p.m.Lunch
1:05-2:05 p.m.

Current state-of-the-art of solar forecasting technologies: from physics-based model to AI/ML-based models

Moderated by Larkin Sayer, Fellow, SETO

‘Day-Ahead Solar forecasting – Current Status and Challenges’
Manajit Sengupta, NREL

‘Prediction of Solar Variability by Cloud Type and Cloud Cover at ARM and SURFRAD Sites’
Kelly Balmes, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

‘The AI revolution in weather forecasting’
Hendrik Hamann, IBM Research

‘Value of Physically Based Models’
Hugh Cutcher, Solcast, A DNV Company

2:05-2:50 p.m.Group Discussion
2:50-3:05 p.m.Break
3:05-3:50 p.m.

Resource and load forecasting for multiple technologies

Moderated by Dexter Newton, Technology Manager, SETO

‘Improving Wind and Solar Forecasts Simultaneously’
David Turner, NOAA

‘Load Forecasting Trends and Challenges’
David Larson, EPRI

‘Forecasting for Hydropower’
Eri Sharifi, DOE (WPTO) 

3:50-4:35 p.m.Group Discussion

July 11, 2024 | See Day 2 Presentation Slides

Time [ET]

Session

9-9:10 a.m.

Opening Remarks

Guohui Yuan, Program Manager, Systems Integration, SETO

9:10-9:40 a.m.

Keynote

Amber Motley, Director, Short Term Forecasting at California ISO

9:40-10:40 a.m.

ISO Panel

Moderated by Bishnu Bhattarai, Technology Manager, SETO

'BTMPV Forecasting Overview'
Michael Fontaine, ISO New England

'Solar Forecasting in Operations at ERCOT'
Luke Butler, ERCOT

'Solar forecasting – progresses, challenges and needs from MISO perspective'
Congcong Wang, MISO

'NYISO Solar Forecasting'
Timothy Duffy, NYISO

10:40-10:55 a.m.Break
10:55-11:15 a.m.

Solar Forecasting Prize winners

Moderated by Dexter Newton, Technology Manager, SETO

Geoff Galgon, Nimbus AI

Zhimin Xi, Reliable Autonomy LLC

Jeff Xu, Leaptran, Inc.

Sara Eftekharnejad, Syracuse University

11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.

Solar forecasting to improve grid operation

Moderated by John Seuss, Technology Manager, SETO

‘Managing risk in power system operations’
Aidan Tuohy, EPRI

‘Update on Southern Company Research’
William Hobbs Southern Company Services, Inc.

‘NYSolarCast: Utility-Scale and Distributed Solar Power Forecasting in New York State’
Jared Lee, NSF NCAR/RAL

‘Distributed Energy Resource Forecasting’
Mack Knobbe, SCE

12:15-12:45 p.m.Group Discussion
12:45-12:55 p.m.Closing Remarks