Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels used to provide similar services.

This analysis assesses the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the evolution of the U.S. electricity system. In particular, how electrification could drive changes in generation and transmission infrastructure investments, fuel use, system costs, and air emissions. We apply a scenario analysis approach that covers a wide range of potential futures based on variations across several dimensions and addresses the following research questions: What are the impacts of electrification on the mix, magnitude, location, and timing of new bulk power system infrastructure development in the United States? How could widespread end-use electrification impact the generation mix and utilization of different classes of generators and transmission assets? What are the impacts of electrification on costs, energy consumption, and air emissions for the electric and broader energy systems?