2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report summarizes 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios," which are designed to capture a range of possible U.S. power system futures.

Strategic Analysis

October 12, 2017

Relative wind and solar costs along with natural gas prices are major factors driving renewable energy generation

Figure 14 from the 2017 Standard Scenarios Report, p. 20: Relative wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) costs along with natural gas (NG) prices are major factors driving renewable energy (RE) generation

This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

This work is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Strategic Programs (Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team), and is one of a suite of products (including the Annual Technology Baseline) that are aimed to provide a consistent and timely set of technology cost and performance data and to define a scenario framework that can be used in forward-looking electricity analyses.

Access the full technical report and other resources on the NREL website.