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Leveraging funding from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office, Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) has developed a model for simulating the market potential of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and challenges to achieving success over time, including competition with incumbent and advanced vehicle technologies. Developed with additional support from the Vehicle Technologies Office, the MA3T (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies) Model is a nested, discrete choice model with more than 1,000 market segments. It estimates future market share of 20 powertrain choices based on vehicle technologies, energy infrastructure, consumer preferences, and policies. One specific scenario simulates the transition of light-duty vehicles to fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

The resulting paper, entitled “Hydrogen vehicles: Impacts of DOE technical targets on market acceptance and societal benefits” states that, as long as a basic hydrogen infrastructure is in place, FCEVs will start to noticeably penetrate the light duty vehicle market and reach 20%-70% market share by 2050. Depending on progresses in achieving the technical targets and meeting all technical targets on time, this could result in about 80% cut in petroleum use and about 60% reduction in GHG by 2050.

The Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) conducts comprehensive efforts to overcome the technological, economic, and institutional barriers to the widespread commercialization of hydrogen and fuel cells.

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) success stories highlight the positive impact of its work with businesses, industry partners, universities, research labs, and other entities.

Project Overview

Positive Impact

New model simulates market potential of fuel cell electric vehicles over time.




Oak Ridge National Laboratory

EERE Investment


Clean Energy Sector

Sustainable transportation