In order to achieve a carbon-pollution free power sector by 2035, solar and wind energy will need to account for a significant proportion of the electricity supply. Since renewable resources like wind and solar are variable in nature, the accurate and timely prediction of the short-term (minutes-to-days) output from these resources is crucial for the cost-effective and reliable operation of the electric grid.
On May 5-6, 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) held a virtual workshop on solar forecasting research and development to discuss current state-of-the-art and upcoming advances in topics like data collection, sub-grid modeling, multi-day forecasting, and integration of forecasts into real-world electricity generation. This workshop built on lessons learned from previous SETO Forecasting Workshops in 2016 and 2019.
Keynotes were delivered by Dave Turner from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Justin Sharp from Sharply Focused, and Congcong Wang from Mid-continent Independent System Operator (MISO). A panel of independent system operator (ISO) representatives discussed current capabilities, major challenges, and desired improvements in the practice and application of solar forecasting.
SETO Solar Forecasting II funding program awardees gave presentations covering a range of topics, including improvements in cloud modeling, generation of probabilistic forecasts, use of forecasts for optimal scheduling, and tools for evaluating forecasts. The workshop also included a demonstration of the Solar Forecast Arbiter platform.
Key takeaways, session recordings, presentations, and additional resources can be found below.
The discussions from the breakout sessions provided SETO with the following main takeaways, categorized in four areas: (1) Forecast Models; (2) Solar-related Use Cases; (3) Data and Sensors; (4) Technology Transfer.
Key Areas |
Main Takeaways |
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Forecast Models |
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Solar-related Use Cases |
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Data and Sensors |
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Technology Transfer |
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SETO thanks all participants for joining this informative and productive workshop. We would like to thank the keynote speakers, panelists, and presenters for providing insights into the latest solar forecasting research advances and the remaining challenges. Finally, we want to thank all participants for their questions and feedback, which will help SETO plan future research topics.
For more information please contact solar@ee.doe.gov.
Session Recordings and Slides
Day 1: May 5, 2021
Day 1 Workshop Recording (password: $	*Drs)
Timestamps for different sessions in the recording are included below. For best results, use Google Chrome.
Guohui Yuan, DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office
- Timestamp in recording: 00:03:15
Dave Turner, NOAA
- Timestamp in recording: 00:19:15
Independent System Operator (ISO) Panel
- Timestamp in recording: 00:51:00
Forecasting Renewable Resources
Amber Motley, California ISO
Solar Forecast at Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT): Overview and Challenges
Pengwei Du, ERCOT
Solar Power Growth in New England
Mike Fontaine, ISO New England
New York ISO (NYISO) Solar Forecasting
Arthur Maniaci, NYISO
Solar Forecasting in PJM Operations
Joseph Mulhum, PJM Interconnection
Elizabeth Anastasio, PJM Interconnection
Bri-Mathias Hodge, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
- Timestamp in recording: 01:44:30
Ben Hobbs, Johns Hopkins University
Venkat Krishnan, NREL
- Timestamp in recording: 02:03:40
Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN)
Aidan Tuohy, Electric Power Research Institute
- Timestamp in recording: 02:23:40
Demonstration of Solar Forecast Arbiter
Will Holmgren, University of Arizona
- Timestamp in recording: 02:44:20
Day 2: May 6, 2021
Day 2 Workshop Recording (password: S76WBKf*)
Timestamps for different sessions in the recording are included below. For best results, use Google Chrome.
Keynote: The Importance of Effective Use of Meteorology in the Energy Transition
Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused
- Timestamp in recording: 00:01:00
Keynote: Forecasting in Regional Transmission Organization Reliability Imperative
Congcong Wang, Midcontinent ISO
- Timestamp in recording: 00:33:25
Development of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Solar v2 – Improving Solar Forecasts
Larry Berg, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- Timestamp in recording: 01:05:40
Advancing the WRF-Solar Model to Improve Solar Irradiance Forecast in Cloudy Environments
Yangang Liu, Brookhaven National Laboratory
- Timestamp in recording: 01:25:10
Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar
Manajit Sengupta, NREL
- Timestamp in recording: 01:46:00
Carlos Coimbra, University of California San Diego
- Timestamp in recording: 02:06:30
Additional Information
- Systems Integration research area
- Long-Term System Planning for Solar Integration research topic
- Solar Energy Cost and Data Analysis research topic
- Solar Forecasting II funding program
- SETO Multi-Year Program Plan