Workshop: 2021 SETO Solar Forecasting Research and Development

In order to achieve a carbon-pollution free power sector by 2035, solar and wind energy will need to account for a significant proportion of the electricity supply. Since renewable resources like wind and solar are variable in nature, the accurate and timely prediction of the short-term (minutes-to-days) output from these resources is crucial for the cost-effective and reliable operation of the electric grid.

On May 5-6, 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) held a virtual workshop on solar forecasting research and development to discuss current state-of-the-art and upcoming advances in topics like data collection, sub-grid modeling, multi-day forecasting, and integration of forecasts into real-world electricity generation. This workshop built on lessons learned from previous SETO Forecasting Workshops in 2016 and 2019.

Keynotes were delivered by Dave Turner from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Justin Sharp from Sharply Focused, and Congcong Wang from Mid-continent Independent System Operator (MISO). A panel of independent system operator (ISO) representatives discussed current capabilities, major challenges, and desired improvements in the practice and application of solar forecasting.

SETO Solar Forecasting II funding program awardees gave presentations covering a range of topics, including improvements in cloud modeling, generation of probabilistic forecasts, use of forecasts for optimal scheduling, and tools for evaluating forecasts. The workshop also included a demonstration of the Solar Forecast Arbiter platform.

Key takeaways, session recordings, presentations, and additional resources can be found below.

The discussions from the breakout sessions provided SETO with the following main takeaways, categorized in four areas: (1) Forecast Models; (2) Solar-related Use Cases; (3) Data and Sensors; (4) Technology Transfer.

Key Areas	Main Takeaways
Forecast Models	Support sub-grid scale cloud research Support solar forecasting research and development (R&D) on all timescales Better awareness of National Weather Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational models can lead to better integration of research models
Solar-related Use Cases	Support forecasting of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar output Focus on solar-specific impact of extreme weather (including regional conditions such as smoke and snow)
Data and Sensors	Need for high-quality and ancillary data Lack of observability of BTM data is still a key issue Assist with access to data (including BTM data)
Technology Transfer	Ensure engagement between R&D, vendor, and end-user Solar Forecast Arbiter needs wider outreach Demonstration to operators is key for adoption

SETO thanks all participants for joining this informative and productive workshop. We would like to thank the keynote speakers, panelists, and presenters for providing insights into the latest solar forecasting research advances and the remaining challenges. Finally, we want to thank all participants for their questions and feedback, which will help SETO plan future research topics.

For more information please contact solar@ee.doe.gov.