Key updates from this Quarterly Solar Industry Update presentation:

  • The United States installed 8 GWDC in the first 9 months of 2016, a 96% increase year over year—34 GWDC cumulative total capacity is now installed in the U.S.
    • Solar represented approximately 34% of all new U.S. electricity deployment in Q1–Q3 2016. 
    • 65% of the solar installs in the first 9 months of 2016 were utility-scale PV systems. 
    • Relative “weakness” in traditional U.S. distributed solar markets has been offset by the emergence of newer markets. 
    • Emerging business practices are driving more solar deployment, such as community solar, corporate PPAs, and PURPA contracts. 
  • In Q3 2016, residential installation costs (excluding SG&A) for three of the leading firms in the United States were approximately $2/W, with SG&A adding $0.83/W–$0.88/W. 
  • After several years of relatively flat pricing, modules and components have begun a period of rapid price declines. 
    • Analysts have reported a significant drop in module pricing since July 2016, with module quotes between $0.35/W and $0.50/W in the second half of 2016—some in the industry have seen quotes well below $0.40/W for 2017 delivery. 
    • Some analysts are expecting prices around $0.3/W and costs around $0.2/W by 2020. 
  • While PV penetration as a share of total net generation for the nation is likely to remain below 3% over the next 5 years, analysts expect certain states to achieve much higher penetration levels. 
    • Nevada, California, Hawaii, and Vermont are all projected to have solar penetration rates above 20% by 2021.

Download the full Q3/Q4 2016 presentation here.