A spectrum of analysis methodologies are used in combination to provide a sound understanding of hydrogen and fuel cell systems and developing markets.
Resource analysis determines the quantity and location of resources needed to produce hydrogen. Additionally, resource analysis quantifies the cost of the resources, as a function of the amount that can be available for hydrogen production. While often associated with renewable resources, resource analysis is also suitable for fossil resources and existing production facilities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) modeling is often used to portray and analyze resource data. GIS can also represent the spatial relationship between resources, production facilities, transportation infrastructures, and hydrogen demand centers.
Technology feasibility and cost analysis is performed to determine the potential economic viability of a process or technology, and helps to identify which technologies have the greatest likelihood of economic success. Results from technology feasibility analysis efforts provide input to balanced portfolio development and technology validation plans. The economic competitiveness of a technology is assessed by evaluating its implementation costs for a given process compared to the costs incurred by current technology. These analyses are therefore useful in determining which projects have the highest potential for near-, mid-, and long-term success. Parameters studied include production volume benefits, economies of scale, process configuration, materials, and resource requirements. Of principle importance, technology feasibility analyses can help direct research toward areas in which improvements will result in the largest cost reductions. Additionally, advancement toward the final goal of commercialization can be measured as the economics of a process are evaluated throughout the life of the project. Tools used for technology feasibility analysis include process modeling (e.g., ASPEN Plus), equipment cost modeling, and cash flow analysis. Technology feasibility analysis is performed on a regular and ongoing basis, in the areas of delivery, storage, and fuel cells.
Some of the techno-economic analyses completed to date include:
- Summary of Electrolytic Hydrogen Production, J. Ivy (2004)
- Updated Cost Analysis of Photobiological Hydrogen Production from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii Green Algae, Wade A. Amos (2004)
- Hydrogen Storage in Wind Turbine Towers: Cost Analysis and Conceptual Design, R. Kottenstette and J. Cotrell (2003)
- Update of Hydrogen from Biomass—Determination of the Delivered Cost of Hydrogen, P.L. Spath, M. Mann, W.A. Amos (2003)
- Process Analysis Work for the DOE Hydrogen Program-2001, Pamela Spath et al. (2002)
- Survey of the Economics of Hydrogen Technologies, C.E.G. Padró and V. Putsche (1999)
- Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways—Scoping Analysis, D. Simbeck and E. Chang (2002)
Environmental analysis is used to quantify the environmental impacts of hydrogen technologies. Specifically, life cycle assessment is used to identify and evaluate the emissions, resource consumption, and energy use of all processes required to make the process of interest operate, including raw material extraction, transportation, processing, and final disposal of all products and by-products. Also known as cradle-to-grave or well-to-wheels analysis, this methodology is used to better understand the full impacts of existing and developing technologies, such that efforts can be focused on mitigating negative effects.
Some of the environmental analyses completed to date include:
- Life Cycle Assessment of Renewable Hydrogen Production via Wind/Electrolysis, M. Mann and P. Spath (2004)
- Life Cycle Assessment of Hydrogen Production via Natural Gas Steam Reforming, Pamela L. Spath and Margaret K. Mann (2001)
Delivery analysis identifies the most economic options for delivering hydrogen, and provides a foundation for additional research on alternative storage and transportation options. Additionally, delivery analysis provides crucial information to technology feasibility analysis, in determining the optimal production capacities and locations. Delivery analyses will be conducted to determine the most promising technologies, as inputs to other technical elements of the Program. One planned study will evaluate and compare the respective benefits of transmitting energy from distributed resources as electricity over existing or expanded grid infrastructures, as hydrogen via pipeline, or as a liquid energy carrier to point-of-need reformers.
Some of the delivery analyses completed to date include:
- Costs of Storing and Transporting Hydrogen, Wade A. Amos (1998)
Infrastructure development and financial analysis quantifies the total costs of scenarios for developing the hydrogen infrastructure, including production, delivery, and utilization. By combining the results of previous analyses in the analysis spectrum, infrastructure development analysis can identify economical routes and financial risks for providing the lowest delivered cost of hydrogen from combinations of central and distributed production facilities. Evaluations of the costs, impacts on existing infrastructures, and timelines of various scenarios for the development of a hydrogen infrastructure will be conducted.
Energy market analysis synthesizes all analysis efforts in the analysis spectrum. Scenario analyses, in the context of market analysis, are used to answer several questions:
- What are the feasible options for developing a future in which hydrogen plays a role?
- What are the impacts, costs, and financial risks of the various scenarios for transitioning to the hydrogen future?
- Which technologies are most likely to be a part of the hydrogen future, and what are the interactions between these technologies and other energy sources and carriers?
- What market penetration pathways are likely?
- What are the scenarios for hydrogen use in transportation and stationary markets?
The scenarios that are developed, and the costs and benefits that are quantified, are used to develop a broad understanding of the most viable routes for achieving the hydrogen future. Results are useful in crosscutting benefits analysis, and will be used by the Systems Integrator to provide decision-making recommendations to the Program. Studies will be carried out to evaluate the opportunities for intermittent renewables, including cost, location, benefits of grid interaction, and areas for enhanced RD&D. Additionally, all the analysis capabilities described in the analysis spectrum will be synthesized into energy market analysis models to develop a broad capability for analyzing the development of possible hydrogen futures.
In general, each methodology builds on previous efforts to quantify the benefits, drawbacks, and risks of different hydrogen development scenarios. The systems analysis program uses a consistent set of models and data for transparent analytical evaluations. View an overview fact sheet and individual summaries of the models and tools used for systems analysis of hydrogen and fuel cells.