The IET is a streamlined, transparent, open-source calculator tool for developing forward-looking scenarios of U.S. industrial energy use at the county, state, and national level. The tool examines industry energy use and emissions to 2050 using four components: stock turnover, energy efficiency, fuel switching, and emissions. Projections are based on user-defined inputs and not economic optimization or other similar approaches. In this report, we also demonstrate the functionality of the IET by presenting baseline cases along with case studies that explore the tool’s representation of energy efficiency and fuel switching. These case studies are meant to demonstrate bounds of the tool and do not represent realistic projections of efficiency or fuel switching. Results of these case studies are presented at the national, county, and end-use levels. By benchmarking these results with the National Energy Modeling System, we find that the IET’s current baseline assumptions calculate larger reductions in energy use and emissions than projections from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2017; the combination of the IET’s current stock turnover and energy efficiency assumptions is the likely source of these differences.
Based on the open-source design of both the tool and its data foundation, the IET is intended to be revised and improved over time by a community of users. We have identified several priority areas for improvement, including revisiting the baseline efficiency and stock turnover assumptions, creating a graphical user interface, and automating figure generation for scenario results, based on results of our initial set of case studies and reviewer comments. Future improvements to the IET will build on the tool’s existing strengths as a streamlined, transparent, and flexible tool for industry energy analysis. Additionally, the IET’s foundational energy use data enables scenario projections at the county and specific industry level. This improved level of data resolution combined with the IET’s other features offers new opportunities for analysts and policymakers to understand energy use in the U.S. industrial sector.