The Potential Impact of Offshore Wind on a Future Power System in the U.S. Northeast
This study quantifies the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the northeastern United States by analyzing the power system in 2024 for scenarios with 0, 2, and 7 gigawatts (GW) of installed offshore wind capacity. The analysis identifies potential points of offshore wind interconnection on the New England and New York transmission systems, and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit.
The study finds that power system operations can accommodate offshore wind by adapting the system’s generation dispatch and offshore wind curtailment levels of 4%–5%. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases due to the addition of offshore wind, with impacts varying geographically. Offshore wind’s capacity credit was found to be 14.5%–28.3%, which is lower than estimated in some other studies, in part because this analysis included higher shares of solar photovoltaics and land-based wind. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11% with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to a scenario with no offshore wind.
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This study aims to understand and quantify the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the U.S. Northeast. In this analysis, a detailed representation of the Northeast power system is adopted, using a generation portfolio for 2024 paired with offshore wind nameplate capacities of 0 gigawatts (GW), 2 GW, and 7 GW. The analysis identifies points of offshore wind interconnection in the ISO-New England and New York Independent System Operator control areas and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. Hourly simulations of the 2024 power system operations show an ability to accommodate the prescribed offshore wind capacities by adapting the system's generation dispatch. Curtailment levels of offshore wind range between 4% and 5%. Offshore wind generation displaces primarily natural-gas combined-cycle generation; however, requires increased flexibility from combined cycles through more frequent start-ups. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases because of offshore wind injection, with varying impact on a subregional level. Offshore wind's capacity credit was found to be 14.5%?28.3% and is lower than estimated in other large-scale power system studies, in part because this study considered a different weather year and a power system representation with higher shares of solar PV and onshore wind. The reliability contribution of resources is a topic area identified for more research and collaboration. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11%, with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to the 0-GW scenario.
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