Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

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A circle is formed by an electric cord with the electric plug in the middle overtop a map of the United States. Around the outside of the circle are a car, a building, a house, a power plant, a wind turbine, a solar panel, and an industrial facility.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050, is the first report in a series of publications in the Electrification Futures Study (EFS), a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors, as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multi-year duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe. EFS is conducted by NREL and funded by the Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team in the Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

This report provides projected cost and performance data for electric technologies considered in EFS. The study scope includes direct electric technologies that could meet future end-use service demands in all major economic sectors—transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry—for the contiguous United States through 2050. The report characterizes the technology projections that will be used in future EFS scenario analysis reports to provide cost, energy use, electricity use, and electric load profiles.

The technology data reported here do not reflect predictions; instead, they are designed to cover a wide but plausible range of cost and performance improvements given the significant uncertainties in technology advancement over multiple decades. In addition to providing the foundational data for the EFS analysis, the report is intended to be of interest to other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

Levelized cost of service for technologies in the residential and commercial sector, including gas furnace and electric resistance heating in space heating, and gas water heater & heat pump water heater in the water heating end use.
The Levelized Cost of Service (LCOS) for electric and non-electric technologies is shown for various building end uses in 2020