On Monday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release. This preview report provides updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2035, and is fascinating reading for anyone who is interested in the future of the U.S. energy economy. You can find the report’s key findings here, and the complete report is available here.
Among the most important findings:
- EIA predicts a decline in U.S. dependence on imported oil, a result of moderate demand growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic production, and the use of biofuels and other nonpetroleum fuels. EIA expects net petroleum imports to drop to 36% in 2035, from a high of 60% in 2005. See Figure 1 for EIA's projections.
- EIA expects domestic oil and natural gasproduction to increase substantially. U.S. crude oil production is estimated to reach 6.7 million barrels per day in 2020, the highest level since 1994. Shale gas production is expected to be the driving force behind increased natural gas production, increasing from 5.0 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 13.6 trillion cubic feet in 2035, accounting for nearly half of all domestic natural gas production, as shown in Figure 2.
A number of programs play a role in reducing our reliance on imported oil. Biofuels are estimated to provide more than 1 million barrels crude oil equivalent in 2024, improved vehicle fuel efficiency will help to reduce domestic demand for energy, and new extraction technologies will increase domestic production of oil and gas. The full report will be released on April 26, 2012.
EIA is the Energy Department’s statistical and analytical agency. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. For the latest updates on EIA’s reports and analysis, sign up for email updates, its RSS feeds, or follow it on Twitter.